Utilities Forecasting

Project overview

Studying seasonal patterns in electricity, gas and water use.

A monthly utilities forecasting study covering gas, electricity and water consumption. The workflow compares statistical time-series models with chronological evaluation and validates the structure of the input series.

• Python
• Time Series
• ARIMA
• Evaluation

Inside this build

• Prepared monthly series with log transformation and chronological holdouts, documenting how optional outlier removal can affect temporal spacing.
• Compared ARIMA, tuned ARIMA and seasonal SARIMAX models.
• Recorded selected gas ARIMA(18,2,9), electricity SARIMAX(3,1,4)(5,1,6,12) and water ARIMA(9,2,17) configurations.
• Structured a 60-month holdout and forecast horizon with MAE, RMSE, R², explained variance and MAPE evaluation.
• Validated finite values, contiguous monthly dates and forecast horizons, rejecting duplicate or missing months; added 43 tests.
• Documented missing raw series, fitted models, pinned backtests, baseline comparisons and forecast intervals; no operational or sustainability impact is established.

Source code & links